Since winning their third World Series in five years back in 2014, The San Francisco Giants have made the playoffs twice, losing in the National League Divisional Series both times. Despite a 2021 season where they won 107 games, their record over the last 10 seasons since that last title year is barely over .500 at 761-757 for a winning percentage of .501. Really cool if you’re looking for some Levi’s ad money, not so much if you’re trying to recapture those good old Giants glory days.
Speaking of Giants glory days, that’s why three-time World Series champion Buster Posey is running baseball operations now and former chief Farhan Zaidi stumbled back to Los Angeles to rejoin the Dodgers juggernaut. Can Posey take the success he had on the field and translate it to the front office? Posey did grab slugging All-Star shortstop Willy Adames when everyone said big sticks wouldn’t come to play here. Oracle Park ranked last in home runs hit in 2024, and was ranked 24th in run scoring overall. Adames, who is coming off career highs in home runs (32) and RBIs (112), is in the prime of his career at 29 and normally those type of players avoid hitting in San Francisco. A seven-year $182 million contract can make you forget about the challenges of the park, but Posey got feather pen to paper and the Giants didn’t accomplish that with offensive targets under Zaidi, score one for the power of Posey. We won’t know for a few years if the suit guy is as good as the gear guy, but he’s going to need a bigger commitment from the front office with the purse strings. He can’t do it alone and the bean counters seem more concerned about park renovations, suites and garlic fries than they do about acting like a major market team, which they are.
GIANTS SINCE WINNING LAST WORLD SERIES TITLE IN 2014: (10 SEASONS 2015-2024)
- Record: 761-747 ,501 (13)
- Playoff appearances 2: 2016 (Lost 3-1 to Cubs), 2021 (Lost 3-2 to Dodgers)
- Division titles 1 (2021, 107 wins)
- Average finish in division: 3.1
- Average record: 81-81
- Winning seasons: 3
- Losing seasons: 6
- .500 seasons: 1
- Attendance (6)
The last 10 seasons have been the epitome of mediocre. A .500 record, an average of a 3rd place finish out of five teams in the National League West, , three winning seasons, a .500 season at 81-81 and six losing seasons. Yet for the most part fans come out, the Giants are sixth in league attendance over the last 10 years, which is why management types not named Buster seem to value Oracle Park as the real star of the team.
In 2024 these were the Giants statistical ranks in key catagories:
OFFENSE:
Runs per game: 4.28 (17) – Six of the top seven teams in runs per game last season made the playoffs. The league average in runs per game was 4.39, only the Braves at 4.35 made the playoffs under the league average. The Giants were 20th in runs scored at home, 13th in runs scored on the road.
Home Runs: 177 (17) – The Giants were actually 5th in team home runs on the road last season with 112 but 29th at home with 65 or one more than the Chicago White Sox. The team should be built with a heavy pitching, defense, athleticism and speed approach which Farhan Zaidi said he was trying to do, but never did.
.OPS: .701 (19)
OBP%: 304 (17)
Strikeouts: 788 (25) – The game has changed, but the Giants fail to put the ball in play in key situations time and time again.
SB: 40 (26) – Maybe Tyler Fitzgerald as a full-time player can swipe a few more, but Lee isn’t a base stealer as some thought. Fitzgerald led the Giants last year with 17 in 96 games, Matt Chapman had 15, no one else had more than 6.
One-run games: 24-24 – 5th worst in the NL, 7-9 in extra innings.
RISP: .233 (24): Seems like a problem forever.
PITCHING:
ERA: 4.10 (18) Dodgers won the World Series with an overall ERA of 3.90 (13) and a starters ERA of 4.23 (19). Giants don’t have the offense to support poor starting pitching. In the three seasons the Giants won the World Series their overall ERA was 3.36 (1) in 2010, 3.68 (7) in 2012, and thanks to Madison Bumgarner, 3.50 (10) in 2014. This team won’t win unless the pitching is top 10.
STARTERS ERA: 4.22 (18): Webb was his usual self (204.2 IP, 33 starts, 3.47 ERA), but no one else on the starting staff was consistent. Blake Snell, who is with the Dodgers now, started slow and caught fire, but only pitched 104 innings. Jordan Hicks started hot and tired, Robbie Ray started late because of Tommy John surgery, Kyle Harrison was forced into a #2 role much of the season and was up and down. Hayden Birdsong showed promise in his 16 starts but was only 22.
BULLPEN ERA: 3.96 (15): Camilo Doval struggled and lost the closer role, Ryan Walker picked it up. He finished with 10 wins, 10 saves, a 1.91 ERA and a 2.8 WAR, second on the pitching staff to Webb at 3.6. Tyler Rogers had his typical year, Sean Hjelle was solid especially early, Spencer Bivens was a nice surprise, Erik Miller had some moments. Taylor Rogers appeared in 64 games but was traded to the Reds in the offseason.
STRIKEOUTS: 778 (15) I don’t care all that much about strikeouts except for relievers, can you get one late in the game when you need one?
WALKS: 293 (7)
DEFENSE:
Errors: 87 (17)
DRS: (Defensive runs saved): -3 (20) – Patrick Bailey was tied for 4th in DRS with a +20, Matt Chapman was 5th at +17. Giants were worst in MLB in CF (-24), and poor at SS (-11).
OAA (Outs Above Average) : -9 (20)
2025 PROJECTED GIANTS LINE UP: (PER FAN GRAPHS)
2025 GIANTS PROJECTED PITCHING:
5 GIANTS KEYS FOR 2025:
- 1- PITCHING: Specifically starting pitching. The Giants had the second fewest innings pitched by starters in 2024 (778.2), despite Logan Webb with over 204 innings pitched, third in baseball. It was Logan Webb and a bunch of inconsistency in 2024. Assuming Webb is Webb, it starts at #2. It’s hard to believe that Justin Verlander, coming off a 5.48 ERA season over 17 starts for Houston could be counted on as a #2 starter at age 42, but that’s what he looked like in Spring Training. His velocity was 96-97 and his secondary pitches looked good. Robbie Ray had a solid spring as well and at age 33 with more time away from TJ surgery, could be a solid #3 and eat innings. Jordan Hicks was great early last season but faded in his first season as a starter moving from the pen. He was five and fly most of the season even when he was good. I think his best role is as a 7th inning flame throwing set up guy to Doval and Walker to play six inning games, but the Giants will let him start the season in the rotation. Landon Roupp had a great spring for the second consecutive season and will begin in the fifth starter role. Hayden Birdsong, who was throwing 98-MPH missiles in Arizona will be the long guy for now at just 23 and will be starter insurance to start the season. I have a feeling he’ll be in the rotation sooner rather than later. Kyle Harrison will start at AAA after an illness knocked him down a bit in spring. He’s a two-pitch starter and may be best suited for the pen long term. I like the staff and think they will improve on the 2024 numbers, but it’s our old friend “if” here. If Verlander and Ray hold up, If Roupp and or Birdsong keep pitching like they did in Arizona and if some young depth like Mason Black, or any of the Carson’s (Wisenhunt, Seymour, Ragsdale), can step up for some starts if/when the inevitable injuries or needed rest for the old guys pop up.
- 2- TWO-THREE IN THE LINEUP: How big of a difference will Willy Adames make in the two spot of the lineup and what can we expect out of Jung Hoo Lee batting 3rd? Adames had been solid the last few years before 2024, but he broke out a career year with 32 HRs and 112 RBIs in 2024. How much of that will translate to Oracle Park’s hitting environment? American Family Field in Milwaukee was the 8th best place to hit home runs last season, Oracle Park was 30th of 30. If Adames hits 25 bombs and knocked in 90 or so, that would work. Lee only had 145 at bats and a .641 OPS last season, There seems to be a false sense he was a good hitter as a rookie, the numbers say otherwise, although he did run into some bad luck on batted balls in play. If he’s more comfortable in his second season and his bat plays, that would be huge. His defense in centerfield is a major upgrade, as the Giants had a league worst -24 defensive runs saved in center for 2024.
- 3- SHUTTING IT DOWN: If the starters threw the second fewest innings in baseball, then the pen had to be gassed right? Yep. The pen threw the second most innings in baseball last year with 655, only the Tigers has more at 694. If Camilo Doval (4,88 ERA), bounces back like I think he will, the 8th inning is locked and the hammer Ryan Walker can close the game. The question is, who gets the game to them? There is no likely set 7th inning guy, I like Jordan Hicks, but for now he’s in the rotation throwing 96-97 instead of 101 out of the pen, we’ll see if he can up his stamina from a year ago. Tyler Rogers is used everywhere out of the pen for key matchups, Spencer Bivens is back, Randy Rodriguez has juice when he can control it. If former A’s reliever Lou Trevino is like he was in spring, he could be the guy in the 7th. He was solid for three of his four years in Oakland with Bob Melvin and the A’s, but hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2022 with the Yankees. He had Tommy John Surgery in 2023 and is looking to bounce back. The Giants bullpen blew 19 saves in 2024.
- 4- SURPRISE GUYS: Wilmer Flores hit 23 home runs in 2023, he hit four last season. Lamont Wade Jr, hit 18 HRs with an .808 OPS in 2021, last season he had only 5 fewer at bats, but 10 less long balls. Luis Matos had 16 RBIs in one week last May on his way to player of the week honors. He had 9 the rest of the season. He had a solid spring. Is he for real this year or a dreaded four A player? Casey Schmitt had a good spring, Brett Wisely had a solid stretch last season after some adjustments with his swing. Can a couple of those guys play consistent baseball instead of just in spurts and give the Giants a needed surprise? If a couple were to come through, I’d put my money on Matos and Schmitt. Matos could spell the corner outfield positions, especially Yaz vs. lefties in right field and Schmitt could be a super utility player with above average defense at third, second and shortstop. His bat needs to come around though.
- 5- SOPHOMORES: No sophomore slump allowed. I’ve wondered all offseason if Heliot Ramos is the first half guy who made the All-Star team (14 HRs 46 RBIs /.298 BA/.888 OPS), or the 2nd half guy (8 HRs 26 RBIs .242 BA / .695 OPS). If he’s the first half guy and not the second half guy, the Giants are finally set in left field and have a 25 home run threat out there. If not, left field turns back into the Barry Bonds blackhole it’s been since the home run king retired in 2007. Tyler Fitzgerald, who was mostly used as a shortstop last season, will man second base as the starter in 2025. He hit 8 of his 15 home runs over 53 at bats in July, with 15 RBIs for a crazy OPS of 1.239 for the month. In his other 261 ABs on the year, he hit seven home runs with 19 RBIs. So who is he? He’s a solid athlete who also stole a team high 17 bags in 2024. Could he be a 20-20 guy with solid defense? He’s 27, so it took him awhile to get here, but if he’s for real and Ramos is for real, the Giants have a couple more complimentary pieces on offense to go with Adames, Chapman and hopefully Lee.
PREDICTION:
Per usual, the 2025 San Francisco Giants have a lot of “What Ifs” and few “put ’em in the bank”.
BANK: I look at these players as those who you generally know what you’re going to get:
- Logan Webb
- Matt Chapman
- Willy Adames
- Ryan Walker
- Tyler Rogers
- Patrick Bailey (On defense)
WHAT IFS: For one reason or another, not sure. Could boom or bust.
- Justin Verlander – 42, off a neck injury, looked good in spring.
- Robbie Ray: Solid in Arizona. – Should be good off Tommy John, but not entirely sure, he’s 33.
- Hayden Birdsong, Landon Roupp – Good springs, I like them, but young and inexperienced.
- Kyle Harrison- sickness or he won’t live up to the hype?
- Jung Hoo Lee – I think he’ll be solid in second year, but still learning with only 145 MLB ABs, .262 BA and .641 OPs last season before injury.
- Heliot Ramos: First or second half guy from 2024?
- Patrick Bailey: (Offense) – No one doubts his defense, has worn out and bat has followed first two seasons.
- Tyler Fitzgerald: 8 HRs in July last season, can he be consistent for an entire year at a new position?
- Camilo Doval: Will he bounce back and dominate in the 8th?
- Luis Matos: We’ve heard the hype before.
Usually about half the what ifs come through. In 2021, they all did , that’s not usually the case. Half means 81-81, 80-82, 79-83, records too often associated with Farhan Zaidi’s Giants. The team has to get back to what made Buster Posey’s Giants great in this ballpark: Pitching, defense, athletes, key hits. Problem is the rest of the division. The Dodgers will win the National League West unless an injury bug never seen by man kind infiltrates Los Angeles. Plus the Padres and Diamondbacks are better than the Giants on paper, where the game is not played. The Dodgers dominance means San Francisco will have to compete for a payoff spot against the NL East (Phillies, Braves, Mets), the Central (Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, Reds), and against the West where the Padres were 13 games better than the Giants in 2024 and the Diamondbacks who were 9 better.
Baseball Prospectus.com has their PECOTA STANDINGS which they update throughough the season and they have projected the following to start the 2025 MLB season:
PECOTA has the Giants at 77.8 wins and another fourth place finish in the National League West, Las Vegas has the 2025 win total at 79.5. I’ll go over those numbers slightly and give them a winning season, but no playoffs again this year. Though if PECOTA is accurate, 83 wins puts them in the chase just a few games behind the Phillies. Overall though for the Giants, too many What Ifs and not enough players in the bank.
GIANTS 2025 RECORD: 83-78 (4TH PLACE IN NL WEST)