The Golden State Warriors were swept in their season series by The Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday which dropped them into the seventh seed in the West, which means the dreaded play in game. That one game sprint happens Tuesday night at Chase Center against the reeling and confusing Memphis Grizzlies.
If the Warriors had won Sunday, they would have guaranteed themselves a spot in the playoffs in a road series in the first round against the Los Angeles Lakers. So actually by losing, the Warriors won.
I know, I know, but stay with me here.
THE CONS OF LOSING:
- Have to play an extra game at least, could have used a week off to rest.
- Anything can happen in one game.
- Every game played is a risk for injury to the veteran Warriors.
- At the All-Star break, Memphis was 36-18. That was the #2 seed in the Western Conference and the fourth best record in the league.
- The Warriors are 0-3 in the play in tournament.
THE PRO OF LOSING:
- The Grizzlies fired their Head Coach Taylor Jenkins with 10 games left in the regular season. Memphis is 12-16 since the All-Star break. There were 10 teams worse them them over that time and none are in the playoffs.
- Memphis went 4-6 in their final 10 with only one of those wins over a playoff team, Detroit. They did not beat a Western Conference playoff team after the All-Star break. The last West playoff team they beat was Houston on January 30th, 120-119.
- The Lakers are lead by LeBron James and Luka Doncic who have a ton of playoff experience, the Rockets have major contributors to their success in Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson who have never played in a playoff series.
- Even though the Warriors lost to the Rockets 106-96 on April 6th at Chase Center, I think Houston made a critical mistake. They showed the Warriors how they would defend Stephen Curry in the playoffs. They went all out and showed their playoff cards. They did a great job holding Curry to 1-10 shooting for just three points. Those totals were career worst numbers for any game Curry had played 30 or more minutes in as an NBA player. Give Houston credit, but a Warriors strength in winning all these playoff series over the years is they tend to always figure a team out if given long enough. That recent look could end up a major Golden State advantage.
- The Warriors will have a problem with Sengun’s size, they have issues with many big men in the league. However, Houston is flush with perimeter players who the Warriors can match up with.
Bottom line? I’d rather play the young, less experienced Rockets than I would the battle tested LeBron-Luka Lakers. It wouldn’t completely shock me if the Warriors lost Tuesday to the Grizzlies at home, but if they don’t win, they didn’t deserve the hype anyway. Also, I think the Lakers-Timberwolves series is going seven games and if the Warriors could get by Houston, both of those teams will be gassed. The Warriors avoided Denver and the Clippers on the other side of the bracket with Oklahoma City. The Nuggets lost one game to the Warriors this season, the Clippers finished the season sweep of Golden State on Sunday. Golden State won four of the five series against this side of the bracket (Memphis 3-1, Houston 3-2, Minnesota 3-1, Lakers 1-3). On the other side of the bracket, they lost two of three regular season match ups (OKC 2-1, Denver 1-2, Clippers 0-3).
I understand many things could go wrong Tuesday night. Steph hurts the thumb a little more, Jimmy Butler has a bruise, Draymond Green is running out of tread on the tires. Playing an extra game and a one game series, anything can happen. If The Warriors summon their championship experience and beat Memphis as they should (They are the biggest play in game favorite at -7 points), the Rockets are a better path to the next round than the Lakers would have been.
Sometimes you can win by losing.