You’ve probably already heard the number. The Golden State Warriors are 9-3 in 12 playoff games without franchise lynchpin Stephen Curry in his career.
Don’t let the numbers fool you. The team announced today Curry will be reevaluated in a week after suffering a left hamstring strain in game one of the Warriors second round playoff series versus the Minnesota Timberwolves after just 12:54 of action. This series is scheduled to play every other day. so quick math tells us Curry will absolutely miss games two (Thursday), three (Saturday), and four (Monday May 12). Game five is a week from today, May 14th and that is check up day. Whether Curry comes back quickly or is afforded more time likely depends on where the series is at that point. Golden State beat Minnesota in game one mostly minus Steph, 99-88. If the Timberwolves run off three straight wins and the season is on the line a week from now, Curry likely plays at less than 100%. If the series is 2-2 it’s a coin flip and is fully dependent on how Curry feels. Game five winners in a seven games series in NBA history move on about 80% of the time, so it’s a pivotal game. Hamstring injuries are tricky and they usually don’t bounce back for the average 37 year-old in a week, but this guy is anything but average. If the Warriors lead the series, Curry gets more rest. A hamstring injury can worsen if played on, so Golden State will be cautious with their superstar if they feel there is more basketball after this series.
There will be three games the Warriors will definitely not have the greatest shooter ever to walk the earth, so how do they survive until he returns?
5- HEY BUDDY: Buddy Hield did his best Steph Curry impersonation in the 2nd half of game one vs. Minnesota to lead Golden State to the improbable win. Hield poured in 22 of his game high 24 points in the second half hitting 7 of 12 shots and playing a season high 40 minutes. In his last two games the sharp shooter is averaging 28.5 points per game on 14-19 from beyond the three-point line. Those are Curry numbers. If Buddy can keep that torrid pace while Steph is out, the Warriors will be fine.
4- THE FORGOTTEN MAN: The Wolves know how hot Hield has been and will likely give him the Curry treatment now. That means the floor tilt and open looks Hield benefitted from because of the gravitational Steph pull, will now be focused on Buddy. Which Warriors players will benefit and have to step up? Curry’s absence opens up a rotational spot and the most talented player with the highest upside not in the rotation is Jonathan Kuminga. Kuminga is going to be traded this offseason, likely for a big body who can shoot. For now though, he can audition for the rest of the league on why they should pay him the big bucks the Warriors won’t. In 13 games in December this season when injuries hit the roster, JK averaged 31 minutes per game and scored 21 points per contest while grabbing over 6 rebounds per night. During that December stretch, Kuminga started vs. Minnesota on the 6th and scored 20 points while nabbing 7 boards in a 114-106 Warriors win. The 22 year-old has often teased the skills and athletic ability that made him the 7th overall pick in the 2021 NBA draft, but his inconsistent play, off and on motor and mental mistakes have lessened Head Coach Steve Kerr’s trust in him during key moments. The Warriors have no choice but to see if Kuminga can help them survive while Curry is out, while at the same time building his own case for a big contract elsewhere next season.
3- WHERE IS PODZ? In game four of the first round playoff series versus the Houston Rockets, Brandon Podziemski scored 26 points on 9-18 from the floor, including 6-11 from three-point land. Since that game Podziemski is 12-35 (34%), from the floor and 6-21 (28.6%) from beyond the arc. To finish out the regular season in April, Podz averaged a career high for a month 17.4 points per game on 51% shooting, including 48% on three point shots. He also added six rebounds and four assists per game while providing his usual scrappy defense. He earned a no doubt starting role net to Curry in the back court for the playoffs. The Warriors need the guy who closed the regular season on fire to help offset the huge void while Curry recovers for at least a week.
2- THE OTHER END OF THE FLOOR: While Curry is obviously known for his long distance shooting and overall offensive wizardry, the Warriors have always been a top defensive team whenever they make deep NBA playoff runs. Since Jimmy Butler arrived, Golden State is number one in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 111.2. In the game one win over Minnesota, Golden State held their brick laying opponent to 39.5% shooting, including 5-29 (17.2%) on three-point shots. In their first eight games of the playoffs, teams are shooting just 42.8% against the Warriors, best in the Western Conference. Their one weakness has been allowing second chance points, Minnesota had 14 in game one. Curry provided points, the Warriors will have to deny them to thrive without him.
1- BATMAN JIMMY: Jimmy Butler has made in known loudly and proudly since he joined the Warriors on February 6th he is very happy playing Robin to Steph Curry’s Batman role. It’s time for a temporary costume change. Butler has to be the man now and it’s a role he has excelled at in the past. There was now doubt who led the Miami Heat to the bubble NBA Finals in 2020. In 21 playoff games, Butler averaged over 22 points per game on 51% shooting with 6.5 rebounds and 6 assists per game. Butler was the lead dog the last four seasons in Miami. He has taken and made big shots late in games. He elevates his game in key moments. He’s Playoff Jimmy. He sets a tone on both ends of the floor. He needs to be Bruce Wayne for a week. or so.
Reality is, all of the Warriors need to be better. Curry tilts the court and draws more attention away from his teammates for open looks and easy opportunities on the offensive end more than any other player in the NBA. The game will be harder for everyone on that side of the floor until he returns. We saw in game one of this series the scoring draught which almost cost them the game late after nearly blowing a 23-point second half lead. If the Warriors keep the series at 2-2 and Curry can return for game five on May 14th, which is a week from today, Golden State has a shot against Minnesota. A hamstring injury is tricky though and it’s not a pain tolerance issue, it’s about movement and it can get worse. If Curry comes back too early, they could lose him again. The Warriors once again must show off their championship pedigree or Stephen Curry’s injury could quickly bounce them from the playoffs and they’ll be fed to the Wolves.