SUBSCRIBE TO JOHN LUND UNLEASHED ON YOU TUBE FOR DAILY SHOWS AT 8 AM PT, WHEN NEWS BREAK AND MORE!
When the 2024 49ers season mercifully came to an end, General Manager John Lynch said to the media in regards to Deebo Samuel being on the team in 2025 the team wasn’t in the business of letting good players walk out the door. Deebo Samuel was a good player for the 49ers for the majority of his time in Santa Clara. He wasn’t a good player in 2024, so Lynch wasn’t lying. Combine the slide in performance with the financial number he was slated to count against the cap in 2025, $15.2 million, the highest among 49ers receivers and you see why Deebo Samuel will be a former 49er when the league year opens on March 12th.
HOW DID IT HAPPEN: Although I’m sure the 49ers didn’t want to trade a motivated Deebo Samuel in the last year of his contract amid rumors he was out of shape in 2024 to an NFC playoff team, that’s what the 49ers did. I always talk on the show about connections and the 49ers and Commanders had one. Washington second-year General Manager Adam Peters was the 49ers VP of player personnel when Samuel was drafted in the second round by the 49ers in 2019.I wrote two weeks ago about possible destinations for Deebo on the blog, because of that connection I said Washington was one to watch.
WHY DID IT HAPPEN: Once Brandon Aiyuk put feather pen to paper on his new contract late in the 2024 offseason, the writing was on the wall for Samuel. The 49ers were not going to dedicate big money to Aiyuk and Samuel in addition to signing Jauan Jennings to a good-sized contract for a third receiver after having drafted wide out Ricky Pearsall in the first round for added insurance. Some teams have gone all in on $25 million plus deals for their pair of receivers. The Eagles, Dolphins, and now Commanders have duos who both make over $20 million a year. The 49ers were never going to be a team comfortable allocating that much money to the position, especially knowing the help they need now in the trenches on both sides of the ball, Brock Purdy needs a new deal and George Kittle is in the last year of his contract. John Lynch said on Thursday when he spoke from the NFL draft combine the 49ers needed to get costs under control while getting younger and this is a long term step in that direction. On the field it was simple, Samuel no longer fit the 49ers system with his diminished play. Because Brock Purdy is such an anticipatory thrower, his receivers have to be in the right place at the right time, Purdy doesn’t have the arm strength of some quarterbacks, so he lets the ball go earlier. Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are all better route runners who can beat man easier than Deebo. If he wasn’t effective in his variety of roles running the ball, on jet sweeps or running after the catch, he wasn’t going to be here. In 2024, he set career lows across the board in catches, yards and yards per carry.
THE FINANCES OF THE DEEBO TRADE: Not great short term, but the 49ers have a long term vision. San Francisco will eat $31 million in dead cap money, but can lessen the hit if they designate this trade a post June 1 move, which they likely will to split the number over two seasons. As Nick Wagoner of ESPN states below, the 49ers had budgeted this number in, so this isn’t a surprise. Still, while eating this type of cap money is done more and more in today’s NFL because of the rising cap number, it shows Samuel was no longer a fit with the 49ers on the field nor worth the paycheck off of it.
AIYUK TRADE RUMORS: Brandon Aiyuk is not being traded. The 49ers number one receiver is unlikely to be ready week one, so we will address what the team needs to do at the position now that Samuel is gone and Aiyuk may take a bit to come back, but there will be no second trade of a 49ers wide out. Why? First of all, if you look at players like stocks, Aiyuk would be at an all-time low. He is coming off a major knee injury, not exactly the time to be asking for the moon if you’re San Francisco. Secondly, he can’t pass a physical right now, that’s a big deal. The best for last reason is, the 49ers would take a whopping $39 million cap hit if they traded the former first round pick in a deal right now. As you can see below, his 4-year $120 million deal was for wow purposes only so he and his agent could say the 49ers were paying him on average $30 million a season. That isn’t the case. It’s a 3-year $76 million deal. Once the number jumps to $42 million in the fourth year, the deal is over. $76 million of the deal is guaranteed. For now though, the number to watch is the second year dead cap money or just over $39 million. The 49ers aren’t eating $31 million on Deebo AND $39 million on Aiyuk with hopes of signing Purdy to a new monster deal, extending George Kittle and grabbing a few cheaper priced players in free agency to help the trenches. This isn’t happening, no chance.
WHAT NOW AT WR FOR 49ERS? The starters as of this moment are Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall. Brandon Aiyuk may miss the first few games of the season, the 49ers need help and it is not currently on the roster, What can they do?
FREE AGENT WRS: Devante Adams (32), Stephon Diggs (31), Tee Higgins (26), Keenan Allen (32), Amari Cooper (31), Chris Godwin (29), Brandin Cooks (31), Dionte Johnson (28), Mike Williams (30), Robert Woods (32), Marquise Brown (27), Darius Slayton (28), DeMarcus Robinson (30), Nelson Agholor (31), DJ Chark (28), Tyler Boyd (28), Mack Hollins 31), Elijah Moore (24), Rondale Moore (24), Tutu Atwell (25), Ju Ju Smith-Schuster (28)
Remember, the 49ers did not trade Deebo Samuel so they could go reinvest big money into a veteran WR. They are trying to get cheaper at the position and I think they are looking for a one-year vet so they can wait for Aiyuk to recover, develop Pearsall and a 2025 mid-round receiver, plus buy some time with a vet so they can compete in 2025. That means Higgins and Adams are too expensive, Godwin too. Diggs has been a headache for three straight teams. The names that make sense from a cost and production stand point for one year are Cooper or Cooks. You have to realize Kyle Shanahan expects his WRs to not only catch the ball but be tough and block as well, so of the smaller receivers like Brown, the Moore’s and Atwell don’t seem like fits. Not a great list.
WRS WHO COULD GET RELEASED OR BE ACQUIRE IN TRADE:
Cooper Kupp (31) : (Released) The Rams will not trade Kupp to the 49ers, so he would have to be released and sign with San Francisco. His 67-710-6 stat line is below average for him and he has had a number of injuries or the Rams would not be releasing him. I don’t know if the 49ers could afford him on the open market, but he is amazing vs. man coverage when healthy and is a tough blocker.
Tyreek Hill (31) : (Trade) Hill said after the season he wanted out of Miami but has since softened his stance. In an off year he still had 81-959-6 and most of that can be contributed to bad QB play after Tua went down. Hill makes $28.7 million in 2025, high above what the 49ers would want to play, but he’s a game breaker and still effective if they wanted to invest in the position again. Shanahan could find many fun ways to get the ball in his hands ala Deebo. Doubtful.
Christian Kirk (28): (Trade) He’s solid, but being paid like he’s great. Typical Jacksonville had money in free agency and overpaid for the former Arizona Cardinal in 2021. Had injuries in 2024 so was held to 27-379-1 on the stat sheet. His first year with the Jaguars in 2022 he had 1,108 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. In the last two seasons, 1,166 yards. Kirk has no guaranteed money left on his deal, so maybe the 49ers could negotiate a fair deal, not break the bank and get a motivated player who at one point had a solid career ahead of him. He’s 6-foot 200 pounds and is tough, so he would fit the 49ers WR mold.
Tyler Lockett (32): (Released) Strictly a one-year guy if Seattle releases him. At 32, Lockett has slowed down and fell behind two other receivers in the pecking order for the Seahawks. Last season his catches and yards were his lowest since 2017. He’s small at 5’10 182, so he’s not a factor as a blocker. He has no guaranteed money left on his deal. Doesn’t seem like a fit, but short term, you could do worse.
Adam Thielen (34): (Trade) Had a stat line of 48-615-5 in Carolina with inconsistent QB play in 2024 and racked up 1,014 receiving yards on 103 catches for the Panthers in 2023. Obviously he can still be productive at 34 and he’s owed only $6.3 million in 2025. Could be the answer on a short term basis.
ROOKIES:
The 2025 class is not considered to be at the level the ’24 class was when Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas were first round picks who had outstanding rookie seasons. Ladd McConkey was taken at the top of the second round and was very good. Rome Odunze, Xavier Worthy and Xavier Legette had success. However, given the 49ers current situation at the position group after trading Samuel and waiting on Aiyuk to recover, I wouldn’t advise counting on a draft pick lottery ticket when you need production right away on a team who still thinks it’s in a Super Bowl window. The 49ers no doubt will draft a receiver or two, I just don’t think it will be a prominent pick early with all their other needs especially along both lines. Having said that, Tetairoa McMillan is a 6’5 monster and many people like Missouri’s physical Luther Burden III. McMillan is expected to go before or right around the 49ers pick, Burden III is projected to go in the teens in the first round. McMillan would be an interesting dilemma if he’s on the board at #11.