We all know 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is going to get the largest salary increase in the history of the NFL. It’s just a matter of when and how much. The raging debate from here in the Bay Area to the loud mouths in New York is he’s not worth it. With the most difficult position in sports to fill, you don’t have to be the greatest, you only have to be the latest and it’s Brock Purdy’s swing at the Brinks truck pinata.
Including 2025, there are the highest paid quarterbacks over the last 10 years in regards to average annual value and where they finished in QB rating on the season:
- 2025: DAK PRESCOTT $60M / TBD
- 2024 DAK PRESCOTT $60M/ 86.0 (27) (MISSED 9 GAMES)
- 2023: JOE BURROW $55M / 91.0 (18) (MISSED 7 GAMES KNEE)
- 2022: AARON RODGERS $50.3M / 91.1 (15)
- 2021: PATRICK MAHOMES $45M / 98.5 (10)
- 2020: PATRICK MAHOMES $45M / 108.2 (3)
- 2019: RUSSELL WILSON $35M / 106.3 (5)
- 2018: AARON RODGERS $33.5M / 97.6 (13)
- 2017: MATTHEW STAFFORD $27M / 99.3 (6)
- 2016: ANDREW LUCK $24.6M / 96.4 (9)
I realize quarterback rating is a flawed stat and it doesn’t necessarily determine the best QB season, but it does illustrate that over the last 10 years the highest paid signal caller had a QB rating under 100 in eight of the last 10 seasons and never led the NFL in rating once. Meaning, they were never the greatest , just the latest. Also, I wanted to illustrate over the last 10 years QB salaries have jumped in AAV from Andrew Luck at $24.6M in 2016 to Dak Prescott’s $60M in 2025. That’s a 144% increase in 10 years, an average of over 14% per season. In other words, even if you believe Purdy isn’t worth what Prescott bagged and the stats and head to head say he is and using those same thoughts he’s better than the quarterbacks who cashed in last offseason, Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love and Tua Tagovailoa. Lawrence and Love got yearly salaries of $55M per season. If you just add the standard 14% on to a Purdy deal it’s an increase of $8M or an AAV of $63M. Throw on top of that the NFL salary cap jumped from $258.4M in 2024 to $279.2M in 2025, almost 9%.
There are a number of factors an agent will look at to determine if his client is being compensated fairly. Total of the contract, guaranteed money, guaranteed at signing, money in the first two years. A major factor is a simple determination of percentage of the cap the QB fills. The average percantage of cap space the top 10 QBs in the NFL average is 22.7% of the cap. Joe Burrow takes up the most cap space on his team at 24.5%, Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love are the lowest among top 10 paid QBs at 21.53%. Purdy shouldn’t have to take lower than that 21.53% of the newly increased $279.2M cap which is equal to $60.1M a year, or just a touch over Dak Prescott for the highest paid QB and player in the league. This is a way agents gauge where their player is and it is doubtful Purdy’s agent will go below this number unless the 49ers are willing to guarantee more of the deal. This percentage is based on total value of the contract, not what is guaranteed, so there is funny money in here, but agents and players want headlines for getting the biggest deal.
BELOW THE AVERAGE OF THE TOP 10 QUARTERBACKS ON THE ISSUES AGENTS WILL FEEL ARE MOST IMPORTANT IN GETTING A DEAL DONE:
I’m going to do some speculating here from Brock’s side versus where the 49ers want to hold the line.
AAV: (Average Annual Value) Brock’s side is going to use the baseline of $55M Lawrence and Love received last offseason. They’ll argue Brock’s numbers and team success put him more in line statistically with the top 5 QBs in the NFL, not top 10. $55M AAV with the low end of an increase being 9%, which is what the cap increase is year to year with 55 as the basis is $4.95M or nearly $60M AAV per season. 5 years is the baseline for all new QB deals, so it will be a 5-year deal. $60M x 5 = $300M. Guarantees are nearly 50% which is the $145M in fully guaranteed money. I think Purdy’s side wants 5-$300M with $150M which would be 21.4% of the cap, just a tick below Love and Lawrence at 21.53%. His agent certainly wants to top Prescott’s $60M AAV, even by a dollar.
The 49ers want to keep the number below $60M AAV and the total under $300M. Given Purdy’s individual and team success and that he’s the next batter up, it will be tough. Why? The 49ers don’t have leverage. If the team really didn’t want to pay Purdy market value, they had a really good leverage piece in free agent Sam Darnold and they didn’t look into it. They knew Darnold from the 2023 season when he backed up Purdy. Kyle Shanahan told many people how much he liked Darnold and after the MVP-type season he had in Minnesota in 2024 running a similar version offense, wouldn’t the 49ers have looked into him if they didn’t want to write the checks? He was here, they know him, they like him and he proved he can play well and win. Seattle signed Darnold to a reported 3-year $110M deal in the offseason, which upon further review is a one-year $35M guaranteed deal. It would have been much cheaper for a guy who was in your building if you didn’t believe in Brock. The 49ers passed without a call. Before you ask, what’s left of Aaron Rodgers isn’t coming home. Kyle and Aaron would be at each others throats in mere minutes and if they weren’t, Robert Saleh would be the ex-defensive coordinator of the 49ers for a second time shortly after the Rodgers announcement to the 49ers. They could have used rare QB leverage, they didn’t and they knew the cost. It’s Purdy or bust, unless you think Mac Jones is leverage and he’s not.
This is how I see it ending up:
Nice round numbers. $145M guaranteed, the average of the top 10 QBs is $126M but 47.9% of money guaranteed is the top 10 average, so it’s in line with a slight increase (49.1% guaranteed). Total value $295M, the 49ers don’t give out a $300M deal. The % of cap is a little low, but Purdy gets the $145M.
These number would put Purdy:
TOTAL VALUE: $295M (3) – Mahomes $450M, Josh Allen $330M , Trevor Lawrence is third at $275M, Purdy will top that.
AAV: $59M (2) – Dak Prescott $60M (Love, Burrow, Lawrence and Josh Allen are at $55M) – Total AAV is funny money, Aiyuk is reported at 4-$120M for ego purposes, when it’s really $3-$76M. It’s all about guaranteed money. AAV is fluff and agent bragging rights.
FULLY GUARANTEED: $145M (4) DeShaun Watson $230M , Josh Allen $147M, Joe Burrow $146.5M- Fourth is Lawrence at $142M and Purdy’s side will argue he deserves more and they are right. Numbers and success are in Purdy’s favor.
The next big question is how soon can it get done? It’s imperative Purdy and the 49ers get a deal quickly so he can be on the field for offseason activities both as a quarterback who needs to get on the same page with his receivers, which didn’t happen in 2024 and as a leader of the football team. The two sides can’t let a long, ugly contract negotiation be the start of a similar distraction as it was with Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams last season. The 49ers know what it will take. Throw out the national bias of pick 262, Brock has earned his monster new deal. Worth it doesn’t matter in sports, leverage and latest do. Brock has leverage because there aren’t enough people in the world who can do what he has done and will likely do. Purdy is 25 and has two NFC Championship games and a Super Bowl under his belt. His career passer rating of 104.9 would top the all-time list if he qualified, he holds the 49ers all-time passing yardage record for a single season. He has 64 touchdowns to 27 interceptions his first three years in the NFL, all while earning just over $3.7M over that span, the lowest starting quarterback salary in the league. In addition, the 49ers don’t have to stay up at night wondering if he’ll make the organization look bad. He’s A++ when it comes to character, which matters if you’re going to give your team leader nearly $300M. Pour over QB lists and put him wherever, Brock Purdy is really good in a league in short supply behind center. You don’t have to be the greatest, you just have to be the latest and Brock Purdy is.