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The 49ers just traded wide receiver Deebo Samuel to the Washington Commanders for a 5th round draft pick and in the process will eat $31.02 million in the deal. That money will be offset by the money Samuel is due in salary this season, which Washington will pay, for a net cap loss of $15.1 million for Samuel to NOT play for the 49ers in 2025. The loss in cap space drops the 49ers from $39.4 in cap space, ranking 16th in the NFL to $24.3 million in cap space as of this moment. The long term benefit is the 49ers won’t have to worry about any Deebo money on the books after 2025, when Brock Purdy’s new deal, which will be signed this offseason, will escalate and more so into the future.
That brings us to 49ers #1 wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Rumors persist that not only would the 49ers trade Samuel, but why not clear more out of the wide out room and move Aiyuk as well? Word is the 49ers are still bitter over the long negotiations from last offseason where the two sides didn’t finish a deal until August 29th, a month into training camp.
Here is why Aiyuk is going to remain a member of the 49ers despite the rumors:
THE MONEY: I just explained the 49ers are eating $15 million net in trading Deebo to Washington and they will have only $24.3 million to work with when the new league year opens on March 12th until they start extending, restructuring and cutting, which they will do. The 49ers have to pay Brock Purdy, although the first couple years of the contract won’t kill the cap. George Kittle is entering the final year of his deal and he has a $22 million cap hit this season, so that needs to get done this offseason and Fred Warner’s deal jumps to a cap number of $29.2 million in 2025 from $12.6 million in 2024, that needs to be reworked. The 49ers would like to talk to Dre Greenlaw about a return and maybe even bring in a couple outside fits in the trenches like former 49ers DT DJ Jones, Falcons center Drew Dalman, who went to Stanford and whose dad played with the 49ers would be a need and a fit and a couple other cheap needs. As John Lynch alluded to at the combine last week, the 49ers spent the most money on total payroll last season at $334 million for a 6-11 team, so Jed York is wondering where his ROI is. Aiyuk has a reasonable cap number of $10.75 million for the 2025 season to play for the 49ers and moving him would cost the 49ers $18.4 million in dead cap space. So would the 49ers who already have cap issues spend $15 million net for Deebo NOT to play for them this season and $11.8 million net for Aiyuk NOT to play for them this season (about $27 million), and replace them with?
WHO IS GOING TO PLAY WIDE RECEIVER?: With Aiyuk’s injury, which we will get to next, the 49ers top two healthy wide receiver are Jauan Jennings and unproven second-year wide out Ricky Pearsall. Jennings only has one more year on his deal at a bargain rate of $4.258 million cap for the season. Pearsall is a also a great deal, his rookie contract is four-years and $12.5 million, he has a cap hit of only $2.85 million in 2025. Second year player Jacob Cowing is a special teamer only at this point. Others vying for spots include Trent Taylor and veteran Russell Gage. To say the 49ers are thin at wide receiver with or without an injured Aiyuk is an understatement.
STOCK UP / STOCK DOWN: Think of Aiyuk as a stock. Keep in mind the point is to sell the stock when the value is high, hold the stock when the value is low and be patient. Where is Aiyuk on that chart right now? Low as he possibly could be from a 49ers stand point. He’s injured and will likely miss the first few games of the season. His value last offseason was a first rounder on the high side, a second round pick on the low side. Coming off his knee injury and the acquiring team knowing he’ll miss a few games to start 2025, his value is likely a 2nd or 3rd round pick with the possibility to go higher based on agreed upon incentives to push maybe another mid round pick the 49ers way if Aiyuk is better than expected the first year. Why would the 49ers trade their #1 receiver as a diminished stock? Plus next year, the cap hit to move him goes down to around $12 million and the year after that when the true value of the contract is finished, which is a 3-year $76 million deal, with no more guarantees, the 49ers can get out for about $9 million. The only upside for the acquiring team is Aiyuk’s number for this season is $10.75 million, which is a bargain for his services, which is another reason the 49ers should just keep him. He costs more to trade than to keep for the year. If you can help it in sports or the stock market, you don’t sell at the low point.
49ERS 2025 FINANCES:
CAP HITS ON THE BOOKS FOR PLAYERS NO LONGER ON THE ROSTER:
- Deebo Samuel $31.05 million (Offset by $15.8 million cap salary Washington will pay net loss of 15.2 million)
- Arik Armstead 15.5 million.
- Charvarius Ward $12.298 million
- DeVondre Campbell $2.68 million
- Jon Feliciano $470K
- There are a few more names on the cap hit list at small numbers for another couple million…
TOTAL: About $65M in cap hits already off roster.
GOING TO BE RELEASED (POST JUNE 1) :
- Javon Hargrave $7.375 million 2025 cap hit.
49ERS PLAYERS WHO COULD BE CUT TO MAKE ROOM: (Remember, it’s not all savings, you have to replace these players) / Pre June 1 cut numbers:
- DL Yeteur Gross-Matos: $3 million savings on 2025 cap
- DL: Jordan Elliott: Saves: $1.6 million
- DL: Drake Jackson Saves: $1.5 million
- DL Kalia Davis: Saves $1 million
- FB Kyle Juszczyk: Saves $2.9 million.
- ST George Odom: Saves $1.4 million
- K Jake Moody: Saves $1 million
Summary: Gross-Matos, Jackson, and Juice, are likely gone, that’s about $8M right there alone in 2025 savings, unless Gross-Matos and Juice restructure, which I think is doubtful.
RESTRUCTURE:
Fred Warner: Warner’s 2025 cap number jumps up to $29.2 million (From $12.6M in 2024), highest in the league among linebackers by $6 million. A simple restructure can put that number in the $15 million range.
EXTENSION:
- George Kittle: Current cap hit jumps from $12.2 million in 2024 to $22 million in 2025. I did a mock new deal to get him to $18M per season, highest paid TE for 3 years and the cap number down to $12M, where it currently is.
TRADES:
- Brandon Aiyuk: For fun, I traded Aiyuk to the Steelers for a 2nd-round pick. The dead cap is $18.4 million, the savings is $6.59 million for a net 2025 dead cap hit of 11.8 million for Aiyuk to NOT play for the 49ers in 2025, when it would cost $10.75 million for him to play for San Francisco. Point would be for him to be off the books when Purdy’s big numbers from his contract kick in, but remember, someone has to play WR, so there will be a cost to replace him.
That’s a lot of numbers to get to this conclusion: Why would the 49ers pay more for Brandon Aiyuk to not play for them in 2025 then it would cost to keep him? Plus his stock is at an all-time low, so they won’t get what they could and someone has to catch balls from Brock Purdy, why not someone who has been around him in Aiyuk? I’m sure there are hurt feelings and animosity, I understand the concept of getting cheaper at the position but Aiyuk is only 27 and isn’t very expensive right now and his 2026 cap number is only $16.2 million, still reasonable. His total deal is 3-years and $76 million. He’ll never see the fourth year when his cap number balloons to $42 million and the 49ers can get out for just over $9 million, that was the plan all along. Plus he’ll bounce back from this injury. If the 49ers are still not happy with him next offseason they can off load a likely healthy Aiyuk for a better return and less of a financial loss.