The Warriors roster still features Hall of Famers Steph Curry and Draymond Green, coached by Steve Kerr. They believe they can win any playoff series and as Green boldly predicted at the NBA All-Star game in the Bay Area back in February, he thinks Golden State is going to win another ring this year and that was when Jimmy Butler had only been with the squad 10 days. The Dubs are 21-6 since the Butler trade saved their season back on February 6th, so Green’s confidence has only grown. That’s all well and good, but there are easier and tougher roads depending on match ups in the playoffs. The Warriors ring chasers may believe because they’ve done it before, they’ll do it again, but there are certain match ups to embrace and avoid. Keep in mind the Warriors can finish any.where from the fourth seed to the eighth seed. They are not mathematically out of the three spot, but the Lakers are two games up and a tiebreaker ahead with four games to play, so that slot is highly unlikely.
From easiest to most challenging, these are the Warriors best and worst match ups once the playoffs start in the West:
– KINGS: It’s unlikely the Warriors face the Kings who currently are locked into the #9 spot in the West. The Warriors would have to drop to the 7th or 8th seed and lose in the first play in game to then face the Kings who would have to likely beat the Mavericks. That game would then decide the 8th seed to face the Thunder in the first round of the playoffs. The season series is 2-2. Sacramento won the first two games of the series 17 days apart in January by a total of 36 points. Since Jimmy Butler arrived, the Warriors won by 24 and 26 points, one game was at home, one on the road. Add Butler to the Warriors, take De’Aaron Fox off the Kings and the matchup isn’t scary. The Kings are only 11-13 since the All-Star break. The only hiccup is the game would be a one game shot and not a series. The Warriors are the better team, but a 16 has beaten a one during March Madness.
-GRIZZLIES: Everyone is lined up to face the team who fired their head coach 10 days ago. Memphis is 10-14 since the All-Star break and even though they are the second highest scoring team in the NBA at 121.7 points per game, they are 24th in ppg allowed at 117. Their overall defensive rating is 11th. They have good talent in Ja Morant, Jarren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane, but they lack overall depth. Golden State won the season series 3-1 by an average score of seven points per game. Memphis did secure their only win with a 144-93 blowout on December 19th. The Warriors lineup that night was Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, Dennis Schroder and Steph Curry. Curry only scored two points in 24 minutes. A far different team than the one with Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody and Brandin Podziemski starting with Curry and Green.
– MAVERICKS: Dallas is currently the 10th seed for the play in at 38-41. On the surface they don’t look like a threat. Just like the Kings, it is unlikely the Warriors play them. They would have to drop into the 7-8 play in and lose to face the Mavs, who would have to beat the Kings on the road. The winner would be the 8th seed and face OKC in the first round. Unlikely. The season series isn’t really relevant because Luka Doncic played the first two games, Anthony Davis hasn’t played against the Warriors as a Maverick and Kyrie Irving is out for the year with a knee injury. Dallas’ starting five of Davis, Dereck Lively II, PJ Washington, Klay Thompson and Spencer Dinwiddie is closer to the lottery than a playoff team, but they have size, something the Warriors struggle with. Also, if they play each other it will be a one and done, not a series. If Davis goes off as he often does against the Warriors and Klay takes a drink from the fountain of youth, anything is possible in one game.
– TIMBERWOLVES: Minnesota has been a forgotten team this season in the West after they went to the conference finals last season only to lose to Luka Doncic and the Mavericks 4-1. Then they shocked the NBA world by trading Karl Anthony Towns to the Knicks right before the season started. Julius Randle, the main player they got back in the trade from New York isn’t a bad player, but he’s not KAT, a clear down grade. Minnesota though has won 14 of their last 17 as we head down the stretch. Like last season, they’re a good defensive team, (6th in defensive rating), but they don’t match up great against Golden State. Rudy Gobert can’t keep up when the Warriors speed up the game and in the half court he doesn’t get out to shooters quickly enough. He wins DPOY and often gets exposed in the playoffs to the point Minnesota takes him off the floor. Anthony Edwards is great, Jayden McDaniels is having a nice year and Randle can go 20-10 on any night. They are a threat, but the match up favors the Warriors. Like Dallas and Sacramento in the current scenario, the Warriors would play them in a one game series where anything can happen.
– CLIPPERS: Los Angeles won games against Golden State in October, November and December. They haven’t played each other since December 27th, a Clippers 102-92 win. Kawhi Leonard played in none of those games and we all know how much the Warriors have changed. The season series doesn’t mean much should they meet in the playoffs from a prediction stand point but it does mean a lot if they are tied to end the season. The two teams meet to end the regular season on April 13th and with LA already having won the season series, the Warriors would have to be at least tied entering that final game and win to move ahead of Kawhi, Harden and the Clips. There are no numbers involved here, it’s just very simple. I don’t want to play against Kawhi Leonard with the season on the line. His Raptors beat the Warriors in the NBA Finals in 2019, albeit with much help from the basketball Gods. Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson went down with season ending injuries in the series. Leonard has been a pain before though as a member of the Spurs. Yes, the Warriors always beat James Harden, but Norman Powell is solid, Ivica Zubac is averaging 16.5/12.5 this season and his size has given the Warriors issues in the past. Golden State would likely top the Clippers in a series, but they play hard, are good defensively when they have their pieces and Kawhi steps his game up in the playoffs. The series could depend on who has home court. LA is 28-11 at home, but just 18-21 on the road.
– ROCKETS: We just saw Houston and they held Steph Curry to the worst 30+ minute game of his career. 1-10 from the field, three points in a 106-96 Rockets win. They can score and defend. They have size and depth. They can score inside and outside. They have a lot of youth in Jalen Green, Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun, they sprinkle in vets Fred VanVleet and the ultra annoying Dillon Brooks. They have a championship caliber leader in Ime Udoka, who lost to the Warriors as the Head Coach of the Celtics in 2022. Golden State won the season series 3-2, going 1-1 with Jimmy Butler in the line up. Houston got off to a fast start to tip off the season, stalled a little in the middle, but they’ve been on a tear since the All-Star break at 18-6. The only teams better have been the Thunder (20-4), Celtics (19-4) and the Warriors (18-5). Houston has a bright future, but I think the Warriors got lucky playing them so late in the season and would figure them out over a seven game set.
– LAKERS: I contemplated putting the Lakers ahead of the Rockets in terms of difficulty but it came down to experience. The Lakers will be better long term adding Luka Doncic and trading Anthony Davis, but it made the matchup with the Warriors an easier one for Golden State. Davis only played 44 minutes vs. the Warriors in two games this season with LA, but the Lakers won them both and despite limited minutes, the big man averaged 18 points per game and over 7 rebounds. Davis has had five 30+ point games vs., the Warriors in the playoffs and he averages over 26 points and nearly 14 rebounds per game vs. Golden State in his playoff career. Doncic is magical, but the Warriors have the perimeter players to throw at him in a series. LeBron James and Anthony Davis together gave the Warriors major issues. Austin Reeves is a problem and the series would be a long one, however the addition of Butler and subtraction of Davis could tilt the series to the Warriors. James and Doncic though could quickly find chemistry, but I still think two players as ball dominant as they are on the same floor won’t bring a title to Laker land.
– NUGGETS: BREAKING NEWS! The Nuggets have fired their Head Coach, former Warriors assistant Mike Malone and replaced him with interim coach David Adelman with just six days left in the season. The Nuggets are on a four game losing streak and are clinging to 4th place in the West. With an easy final few games they should be able to hang on, but how does this move effect their playoff chances? It may mean they’re a mess, like I think it meant for Memphis when they fired their Head Coach Taylor Jenkins. When it comes to facing the Warriors though, we can make this analysis real short, Nikola Jokic. Any questions? Every team struggles with this guy and he turns it up in the playoffs. The Warriors finally beat Denver the other night, but they still didn’t have have Jamal Murray, who has another gear come playoff time as well. The former champs can be inconsistent if their role players Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Ben Braun aren’t having great nights and they aren’t deep. Russell Westbrook is having a forgettable season and there isn’t much behind him in Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther and Jalen Pickett off the pine. Many nights there doesn’t have to be because Jokic is so dominant and makes everyone around him better. If they have home court and they likely will in a match up with Golden State, Denver is a tough arena, though there will be no back to backs and the Nuggets were only 25-15 at home this season. I hate this match up and each time I look at the first round match ups, I want the Warriors on the other side of the bracket from Denver. How will the coaching change figure in? Not likely well, but it doesn’t change the match ups in a Warriors series to me.
– THUNDER: The Thunder lack experience, that’s it. They’re 64-14 as of this moment and they do everything well. They have the likely MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, they have the best team defensive rating (107.5), they turn the ball over the least, they are among the league leaders in points per game and are 4th in offensive rating. Jalen Williams is a solid compliment to Alexander, Chet Holmgren is getting better after injuries, Lu Dort is a good defender and can hit threes. They are deep with six players averaging 17 minutes or more per night off the bench. One side of me says the Thunder are beatable because they are built for 82 and we’ll see about the 16 game sprint. When you watch them though, they fit and compliment each other well. I’ve said if the Warriors were to face them and win a game in OKC early in the series, how would the Thunder react? Also, SGA won’t get all the calls he gets in the regular season, the playoffs are different. OKC deserves this spot, but because they have yet to prove it, there will be doubts especially if they have to match up with championship experience like the Warriors, Lakers and Nuggets have.