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What are the chances of a 49ers Robert Saleh reunion?
In my view, much better than the national media is letting on at this point. The 49ers defensive coordinator from 2017 to 2020 spent four years as the Head Coach of the New York Jets from 2021 through week 5 of the 2024 season compiling a not so sparkling 20-36 record. However his defensive acumen didn’t leave him. In his last two plus seasons, the Jets ranked fourth , third and third in yards allowed in the NFL and and averaged allowing points in the top 10. Saleh can still coach defense, some guy named Rodgers might have been the issue in New York.
Saleh has already spoken to the Jaguars and Cowboys during this offseason coaching carousel about their head coaching gigs and is scheduled to meet with the Raiders and has a second interview scheduled with Jacksonville. As of now, it looks like the Jaguars are going to go with Tampa Bay OC Liam Cohen for their head job to work with underachieving former first overall pick Trevor Lawrence. After missing out on Lions OC Ben Johnson who went to the Bears, the Raiders are reportedly pivoting to former Seahawks Head Coach 73 year-old Pete Carroll to instill new badly needed culture change. Though with Tom Brady in charge, I wouldn’t be surprised if he opted for an offensive mind over Carroll who has a defense and run the ball mentality. That leaves Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys as the last remaining chair before the music stops. Knowing Jones, he’ll milk all the publicity he can get out of the search but ultimately do what he does, which is puppet master someone who knows the rules in Jerry’s world. That means someone who stays out of his spotlight. Brian Schottenhiemer and Kellen Moore lead the Dallas list, though I think Saleh would be a good fit. Let’s say Saleh strikes out and he doesn’t get an opportunity based on what I’ve just laid out, one step closer to a reunion.
Would Robert Saleh take a different DC job? Keeping in mind that his goal is to be a Head Coach in the next 1-2 years, which situation is best?
49ERS; Knows Kyle Shanahan and has had success with a number of players who are still here. He got a job once going from DC to HC, why not try again? The 49ers won’t be outbid from a money stand point. The downside might be Saleh looks at some of these players as older or more injury prone than he remembers. He has a very young secondary to work with.
LIONS: It’s home, Saleh is from Dearborn Michigan which is a suburb of Detroit. I have no idea if Saleh wants to be home and if or how much family he has there. The Lions have some good, young defenders led by the return of Aiden Hutchinson, solid linebackers in Jack Campbell and Alex Anzalone and a good young secondary led by Brian Branch. I have no idea what his relationship is with Dan Campbell. The Lions pose a threat, but I think the 49ers would get the nod based on his relationship with San Francisco, but Detroit has pieces to be very good on defense. A threat.
RAIDERS: If Pete Carroll were to get the job in Las Vegas, Saleh worked for Carroll in Seattle. Maybe money would be a factor, though I doubt it with the offset cash he still will get from the Jets. There is no state income tax in Nevada. The Raiders have the worst defensive personnel among DC opportunities. They feature Maxx Crosby, Christian Wilkins and not much else.
COWBOYS: It wouldn’t seem Jones would go for a big name DC or pay him that way. He did have Dan Quinn and Mike Zimmer, two high profile names on that side of the ball, so while I expect the Cowboys to go offensive mind with their Head Coach, that person would need a strong defensive presence. If Saleh were to look beyond Micah Parsons though, there isn’t much to get him excited to think he could parlay the Dallas DC spot into a head coaching job in the near future.
Conclusion: The Cowboys and Raiders due to lack of personnel don’t make sense for Saleh. Detroit could be a road block for the 49ers based on solid pieces in place, winning and depending on what he thinks of going home. I still think the 49ers are his best fit based on knowledge of what Kyle wants and he did it before going from San Francisco DC to Head Coach.
If it’s NOT Robert Saleh, then what?
You likely don’t want to hear this, but it’s probably 2024 Defensive what ever he did with the 49ers assistant Brandon Staley. I can hear you booing from here. Let’s make a case though both ways.
In 2020, Staley was the defensive coordinator for the Rams. As you can see below, Los Angles topped the league in points per game, yards per game and only allowed ONE touchdown pass versus 12 interceptions.
However, from 2021 through 2023 as the Head Coach of the Chargers, his defenses were 29th, 21st and 24th in points allowed and 23rd, 20th and 28th in yards allowed. It helps to have Aaron Donald around. Staley also was heavily involved with the 49ers defense in 2024, the same defense that got Nick Sorenson fired. He’s not exactly on a good run here.
Just because a guy isn’t a good Head Coach, doesn’t mean he’ll be a bad coordinator just like we’ll find out if former Lions OC Ben Johnson is just a great OC but not head coaching material. You obviously need the pieces, I’ve never seen a team with bad players be great, coaching only helps so much.
Bottom line is this: I give a 49ers-Saleh reunion an 80% chance of happening at this point. It doesn’t look like he’ll be a head coach this offseason. To me it then comes down to the Raiders, Lions and 49ers for the DC slot. Las Vegas has his pal Pete Carroll but not the players. The Lions may have the players and home, but the 49ers are a familiar spot with players he knows, the head coach he knows, the scheme he runs and he’s made the jump from coordinator to top man from San Francisco before.