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The greatest shooter in NBA history knocked down another milestone during the Golden State Warriors 130-104 thrashing of the Sacramento Kings at Chase Center on March 13th. Steph Curry swished his 4,000th career three-pointer, a number no other player has come close to and may never will. As the man who changed the game from dunks on Sports Center to long range bullseyes continues to distance himself from distance.
The question now is how long will he be the king of the NBA three ball?
As you can see by Curry’s career three point attempts and makes, the NBA wasn’t the let it rip from the parking lot game that it is today. In his first three seasons Curry averaged just under five attempts and two makes per game. The next three seasons it was almost eight attempts and 3.5 makes. Over the next 10 seasons Curry has been ranging from 9.8 to a high of 12.7 attempts per game, averaging 11.3 attempt and 4.7 makes per game. For his career, Curry averages 9.3 three point attempts and 3.9 makes per game. Curry has played 16 seasons with 4,000 made 3’s. If you take out this season because it is not yet complete and his injury seasons where he only played five games during the 2019-2020 year and 2011-2012 where he only played in 26 games due to ankle issues, Curry averages 283 three pointers made per season. Let’s assume for this fun little exercise Curry gets to 5,000 made three pointers. That would mean after this season of around 300, Curry would have to average just over that for three more seasons. The mark of 5,000 would mean a player would have to average 313 made threes per season for 16 years to reach 5,008. To put that in perspective, Curry has the all-time mark for three-pointers made in a season of 402 during the 2015-2016 season. Only seven times in the history of the league has a player made 300 or more threes in a season and five of those seven belong to Curry. James Harden made 378 during the 2018-2019 season and Klay Thompson made 301 during the 2022-2023 season. Curry has six of the top seven seasons all-time in regards to three pointers made in a season ranging from 324 to 402, so averaging 313 for 16 seasons is otherworldly at this point. Who thought the three-point revolution would get to where it is today though? It probably has further or more so farther to go.
Among, current players, it is unlikely someone will break Curry’s mark which will likely be at or around 5,000 makes when all is said and done.
- Luka Doncic 26: 3.0 makes per game for career. Has cranked that up to 3.4 the last three seasons. He has 1,320 makes right now. Doncic is 3,680 short of 5,000 and would have to average 368 per season over the next 10 years, his career high for a season is 284 in the 2023-24 season. Not happening.
- Anthony Edwards 23: Edwards currently leads the NBA in three pointers made this season with 262, just ahead of Curry at 253. Edwards has 1,051 made in 366 career games or 3 per game. Last season he made 2.5 per game, this season that has jumped up to four makes per game. Edwards is currently 3,949 makes behind Curry, but he’s only 23. Let’s say he plays 14 more seasons until he’s 37. At 75 games per season over 14 years he would play in 1,050 games and have to average 3.8 made three pointers per game to top 5,000. For his career he’s averaged 2.7, 3.1, 2.7, 2.5 and 4.0 makes per game. He would have to average almost his career high this season for 14 seasons to do it. Not likely.
- Jayson Tatum 27: Tatum has 1,517 career three pointers made or 3,483 behind Curry. For his career he averages 2.64 makes per game, 185 per season. If Tatum played until he was 39 and averaged 75 games per season, he would have to make 290 threes over those 12 seasons to reach 5,000. His career high in three pointers made in a season is 240. Though he is on pace for a career high 272 this season. No chance.
- Tyler Herro 25: Herro came into the NBA at 20, so if he keeps up or slightly increased his pace, he has a shot to be high up on the list of three point makes leaders in league history. At 25, he has played in 346 games with 950 makes, 2.7 per game. He is 4,050 short of 5,000. If he played 15 more seasons at his current average of 2.7 per year, over 70 games (He’s averaging only 57 games per season so far), he would have 3,785 three pointers. Herro is young and a great shooter, but he doesn’t enough games or makes to come close.
- LaMelo Ball 23: Ball is interesting because he is on a bad team and has become a big time three ball chucker. He averages 11.5 attempts per game with 3.8 makes this season. Ball has 686 makes now in his 5th season, but he only played 22 games last season due to injury and 36 the season before. Ball is not likely going to be healthy enough to ever come close to the record but if he every could string together 10 seasons of 70 games, at almost four makes per he could get to around 3,500, not likely though.
- Trae Young 26: Many people thought Young was the next Curry and although he has long range and is an All-Star caliber player, he’s not Curry. Young has 1,227 made three pointers in his career over 468 games, an average of 2.6 makes per game. He is not the volume shooter many though he would be, he never has averaged double digit three point attempts per game and for his career only averages 7.5 per game. Young is 3,773 short of 5,000 and would need to average almost four three-pointers per game over the next 14 seasons, or until he was 40 to reach 5,000. Young doesn’t shoot enough from distance to come close.
So who could break Curry’s all-time mark which will be near or at 5,000 when all is said and done?
Obviously it’s about shooting ability, health and longevity and Curry has all the ingredients. It’s basic math though to a when, not if Curry’s record will eventually be broken by a not yet in the league NBA player. It’s not based on a player being a better shooter than Curry, but the three point line being emphasized for that players entire career and overall volume of shots taken and made. When Curry was a rookie during the 2009-2010 season, the team leader in three pointers made were the Orlando Magic with 10.2 per game on 27.3 attempts per game. This season, Boston takes the most at 43.8 and makes the most at 17.8. During Curry’s rookie season of 2009-2010, Rockets guard Aaron Brooks led the NBA with 209 makes. Last season Curry led the league with 357 makes. Who knows how much higher the volume of three point shots can go, but while it won’t jump like it has, a sharp shooter with a go sign will enter the league and average 10+ attempts and 4.2 makes or higher for his career. That’s Curry’s career 42% mark , so if a player enters the NBA who plays 70 games for 15 seasons, and averages 4.2 makes per game, that’s 4,410 three pointers. Maybe not as likely as I thought, it is in range though. It shows you how amazing Curry has been. We are in the era of the 3-ball and we aren’t gong back, but a player with all of Steph’s attributes of health and ability will enter the league with a sweet stroke and the greeniest of green lights and still will need to have everything go right to come close to his record, despite the advantage of the 3-point path which Curry has cleared for those who will follow.